Ice Picks Championship Edition: Homestead-Miami Speedway
Nov 14, 2014; Homestead, Miami, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Denny Hamlin during qualifying for the Ford EcoBoost 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports
The time has come to crown a new NASCAR Champion at Homestead-Miami Speedway in the Ford Ecoboost 400.
Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin and Ryan Newman are the only drivers competing in the final four in a one race, winner takes all championship. If none of the four drivers wins on Sunday, then the highest finisher wins the hardware, with confetti thrown in to obscure your vision if your driver didn’t win.
Needless to say, there is a lot at stake here in Homestead-Miami. The winner can make a serious statement when his next contract is due and he has a shot to make the Hall of Fame down the road.
Kevin Harvick’s odds are at 9/2 at the time of this article. He’s the favorite to hoist the Sprint Cup trophy and with good measure after posting the fifth fastest qualifying spot, highest among the final four. He was second after the first practice with a speed of 178.950 mph, second to Brad Keselowski who topped the charts at 179.004. He ranks fourth in career driver ratings at Homestead-Miami and is tied with Jeff Gordon with the most top fives for Homestead with 11. Harvick’s career average finish of 8.1 is highest among the final four.
Joey Logano comes into Homestead-Miami as the second favorite with odds of 7/1. His stats are nothing to write home about with one pole and one top 10 for his five years in NASCAR. This is a breakout year for Logano, who had some growing pains during his young career. Logano is a fearless competitor and he has proven he can win championships by winning the NASCAR K&N Series East Division at the tender age of 18. This is why Harvick started his thrash talk on Logano, trying to get into Logano’s head. Logano’s average finish is 20.0 for Homestead-Miami.
I’ve been saying over the past few Ice Picks that the schedule favors Hamlin towards the end, if he can make into the Championship round. Denny won this race last year and has the second best average finish among the final four at 11.2 with two wins, four top fives and five top 10.
His odds at winning are at 12/1. I would put down a $20 at those odds. The reason Harvick didn’t start thrash talking Hamlin is because Denny choked away a bid for a championship a few years ago. Denny was a complete hot mess during the latter stages of that Chase run; he couldn’t handle the pressure and Harvick hopes Hamlin will do the same on Sunday. Let it be known that Hamlin has never won championship of any kind during his career but maybe with Darian Grubb’s experience, that will change.
Ryan Newman showed us all that this new championship format is flawed. He did exactly what he had to do to make it into the final four, shades of Matt Kenseth in 2003. I will admit, I do like this year’s new format but you have to give at least a five point separation between finishes and three points for 25th on back. Jeff Gordon is worthy of making the final four with his outstanding performance this year, but it is what it is and we have to live with it.
Newman does have a top five and knows how to get around Homestead-Miami and is the long shot to take the hardware with his odds at 30/1. Newman is a tenacious driver to pass, and that could be his biggest asset if he finds himself in the mix at the end. I think Newman will run in the top 10, and if mistakes starts spreading like the plague to the top three, then Newman has a legitimate shot to shock the racing world.
I see this race going one of two ways, it’s either going to be a nice race or a Bristol type shoot out of days gone by. I’m picking the shoot-out Bristol style and here’s why. Drivers never forget and earlier this year, Harvick got into the dominant race car of Hamlin at Bristol and ended his day. I think if both Hamlin and Harvick are fighting for the lead, this scenario could play out.
Sticking with Hamlin, lets not forget last year at Fontana, Calif., when Joey Logano ended the season for Hamlin and put a world of hurt into the FedEx driver. Yes race fans, Logano has payback coming, and if you have observed this sport over the years, drivers usually wait for the right time to settle a score. Not what you wanted to hear if you’re a Logano or Harvick fan.
As far as Newman goes, he’s bumped into more drivers than President Carter had peanuts. So the entire field could lay into Newman for that alone.
Drivers who participated in tire testing at Homestead-Miami: Danica Patrick, Justin Algeir, Ryan Blaney, Austin Dillon, Martin Truex Jr, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Sam Hornish. None of the final four participated.
I don’t have any personal favorites in NASCAR, but I’m going on record that Hamlin wins the championship. He doesn’t have any pressure on him to win it this time, and his pit crew has been flawless this year. Grubb’s experience when he won the championship with Tony Stewart a few years ago could make the difference among the final four.
Here’s my Ice Picks for the Championship Round:
A List
Kevin Harvick
Jeff Gordon
Kurt Busch
B List
Denny Hamlin
Joey Logano
Ryan Newman
Martin Truex Jr
C List
Danica Patrick
I want to thank all my readers for following me during the season; let me know who you think will win the championship. Thanks for stopping in.