Jimmie Johnson leads Brad Keselowski by only 3 points in the Chase-only points system after the race at Texas. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-US PRESSWIRE

First off, I offer my apologies for not updating the Chase-only standings post Martinsville. My schoolwork required great attention last week, but no matter, I’ll be here for the final three races and we’ll crown a champion under the Chase-only points system.

But now with all of the formalities aside, let’s view what the Chase-only points look like as the Sprint Cup Series heads into the penultimate race of the season at Phoenix this weekend. Remember, in this Chase-only points system, the best finishing Chase driver earns 12 points, the second best earns 11, and so on down to the worst finishing Chase driver who earns 1 point.

The Chase-only standings had everything fairly jumbled up from how the real points standings looked for most of the Chase, but after critical races at Martinsville and Texas, the two systems are starting to match up pretty closely.

After his back-to-back wins in those races, Jimmie Johnson now holds the points lead over Brad Keselowski by 3 points and that’s not too far off from his actual 7 point lead over Keselowski.

We’ve known for the last few races that this championship is going to be decided between Johnson and Keselowski under the real points system. Too many drivers are too far behind to have a realistic shot at winning the championship and that trend is becoming evident in this Chase-only points system as well. Aside from Johnson and Keselowski, Clint Bowyer is the next closest, but he’s a full race behind the two championship leaders.

Here’s a look at what the Chase-only standings look like after Texas:

Standings with a Chase only points system after Texas:

1. Johnson              Leader            1 (Position in Actual Standings)

2. Keselowski        -3                      2

3. Bowyer               -15                   3

4. Kahne                 -17                    4

5. Gordon               -25                    5

6. Kenseth              -26                    5

tie. Truex Jr.          -26                     9

8. Hamlin               -31                     7

tie. Stewart           -31                     8

10. Biffle                -35                     10

11. Harvick           -38                     11

12. Earnhardt Jr. -43                     12

So it’s easy to see that this championship is down to Johnson and Keselowski regardless of what points system is used, but this Chase-only system still better shows who is having a good Chase and who is not.

Just look at Martin Truex Jr. under this system. He may not be having an eye catching Chase, but he’s run consistently and the Chase-only system recognizes his steady performance and puts him in a very respectable 7th position instead of 9th in real life.

On the flip side, Denny Hamlin has had a very unfortunate Chase with the exception of his New Hampshire win yet he’s still 7th in points with the ability to quickly jump back into the top-5. In the Chase-only system, Hamlin is 8th in points but would find it more difficult to leap frog other drivers to get back into the top-5.

All in all, this system has been proving week in and week out that it more accurately reflects a Chase driver’s actual performance by eliminating the non-Chase drivers who affect the points more than we realize.

Anyway, we’ll see what Phoenix holds this weekend and if Keselowski can retake the points lead from Johnson, as well as seeing if a third driver can put his name back into championship contention.

All statistical information obtained from NASCAR.com

Original idea for Chase-only system by David Newton of ESPN.com

Follow me on Twitter for more NASCAR news and info: @Adam_Huth

Thanks to his Kansas win, Matt Kenseth stays in contention for the championship in a Chase-only points system. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-US PRESSWIRE

Thanks to a solid run all day long at the suddenly treacherous Kansas Speedway, Brad Keselowski was able to regain his points lead over Jimmie Johnson by 1 point in our mythical Chase-only points system.

Remember, this mythical system only issues points to the drivers in the Chase in order to keep more Chase drivers relevant in the championship hunt by keeping the non-Chasers from factoring into the awarding of points. Also remember that in this system, the best finishing Chase driver earns 12 points, the second best earns 11, and so on down to the worst Chase driver who earns 1 point.

Last week under our imaginary system, Johnson was able to move into a tie for the points lead with Keselowski by virtue of his top-5 at Charlotte while Keselowski finished outside of the top-10 in that race. This week though, Johnson only trails Keselowski by a point which is very fortunate considering Johnson wrecked, like many others did, but was able to repair the car enough to score an amazing top-10.

Let’s take a look at the whole scope of points following Kansas:

Standings with a Chase only points system after Charlotte:

1. Keselowski       Leader             1 (Position in Actual Standings)

2. Johnson             -1                       2

3. Kahne                 -6                      5

4. Bowyer              -10                    4

5. Hamlin               -11                    3

tie. Truex Jr.          -11                    6

7. Gordon              -13                     8

8. Kenseth             -19                     9

9. Stewart              -20                    7

10. Harvick           -23                    10

11. Biffle                -24                    11

12. Earnhardt Jr. -32                    12

Notice how close Kasey Kahne is behind the top two, sitting in third at only six points behind. That’s an amazing change from how the points look in the real system where Kahne is stuck in a distant fifth. This system has awarded greatly for his consistency throughout the Chase.

As well, take a look at where Denny Hamlin has fallen to in this system. He’s in a tie for fifth with Martin Truex Jr. due to his mediocre run at Kansas. This place in points fits Hamlin better than the third place spot he owns in the real standings as it shows how his Chase has truly gone. Despite his dominating win at New Hampshire, Hamlin has been off of his game and has been outperformed by guys like Kahne and Bowyer. He is still very much in championship contention in this system though, especially with the Series racing at Martinsville this weekend.

This system also goes to show just how important winning is when you look at where Matt Kenseth sits in this imaginary system. He’s at 8th thanks to his two Chase wins at Talladega and Kansas. Despite Kenseth’s awful Chase races at Dover and Charlotte, he’s still a decent threat under this system that awards winning. In the real system, Kenseth still sits 10th in points even though he has two wins.

This week’s race at Martinsville creates the possibility that the points will be shaken up in a big way at least one more time in the Chase before we head to some more predictable tracks in the final three races. Be sure to check back next week to see who owns the points lead under this unique Chase-only system!

All statistical information obtained from NASCAR.com

Original idea for the Chase-only system by David Newton of ESPN.com

Follow me on Twitter for more NASCAR news and info: @Adam_Huth