Statistically speaking: a look at Dover
The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to Dover (Del.) International Speedway this weekend for Sunday’s AAA 400, the third race in the 10-race Chase for the Sprint Cup. With two Chase races in the history books, Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Matt Kenseth and Kyle Busch are first and second in the championship points standings after wins by Kenseth and second-place finishes by Busch in both of the Chase races, so far. Both Kenseth and Busch have had success at Dover, as each driver has made two trips to victory lane.
Meanwhile, Jimmie Johnson, who sits third in the points standing has been abundantly successful at Dover. Johnson has more wins than any active driver with seven trips to Dover’s victory lane. A couple of drivers in the back half of the Chase field also have better stats than Kenseth and Busch. Jeff Gordon has won four times at Dover, while Ryan Newman has been victorious at the track three times.
Here’s a statistical look at how the 13 Chase drivers have fared in the past at Dover (stats provided by NASCAR Media Group):
1 – Matt Kenseth (No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)
· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 110.8
2013 Rundown
· Seven wins, eight top fives, 15 top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 13.0
· Led 19 races for 1,344 laps
Dover International Speedway Outlook:
· Two wins, 13 top fives, 18 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 13.6 in 29 races
· Average Running Position of 9.4, second-best
· Driver Rating of 107.3, second-best
· 409 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
· 5,429 Laps in the Top 15 (79.8%), second-most
· 449 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), fourth-most
2 – Kyle Busch (No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)
· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 103.5
2013 Rundown
· Four wins, 13 top fives, 17 top 10s; three poles
· Average finish of 13.1
· Led 14 races for 1,169 laps
Dover International Speedway Outlook:
· Two wins, eight top fives, 11 top 10s
· Average finish of 13.3 in 17 races
· Average Running Position of 11.2, sixth-best
· Driver Rating of 105.6, third-best
· 363 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
· 5,174 Laps in the Top 15 (76.0%), fourth-most
· 432 Quality Passes, fifth-most
3 – Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)
· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 105.5
2013 Rundown
· Four wins, 11 top fives, 17 top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 12.3
· Led 16 races for 1,180 laps
Dover International Speedway Outlook:
· Seven wins, 11 top fives, 16 top 10s; three poles
· Average finish of 9.0 in 23 races
· Series-best Average Running Position of 7.1
· Series-best Driver Rating of 119.6
· Series-high 923 Fastest Laps Run
· Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 144.091 mph
· Series-high 5,862 Laps in the Top 15 (86.2%)
4 – Carl Edwards (No. 99 Roush Fenway Racing Ford)
· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 93.9
2013 Rundown
· Two wins, eight top fives, 14 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 12.1
· Led 12 races for 448 laps
Dover International Speedway Outlook:
· One win, eight top fives, 12 top 10s
· Average finish of 8.6 in 18 races
· Average Running Position of 10.3, third-best
· Driver Rating of 102.9, fourth-best
· 487 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 143.588 mph, fifth-fastest
· 4,912 Laps in the Top 15 (72.2%), seventh-most
· Series-high 469 Quality Passes
5 – Greg Biffle (No. 16 Roush Fenway Racing Ford)
· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 83.3
2013 Rundown
· One win, four top fives, 11 top 10s
· Average finish of 14.7
· Led 4 races for 117 laps
Dover International Speedway Outlook:
· Two wins, six top fives, 10 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 12.5 in 22 races
· Average Running Position of 10.7, fifth-best
· Driver Rating of 101.4, fifth-best
· 432 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
· 723 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 143.654 mph, fourth-fastest
· 5,109 Laps in the Top 15 (75.1%), fifth-most
· 464 Quality Passes, second-most
6 – Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet)
· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 92.7
2013 Rundown
· Two wins, seven top fives, 14 top 10s
· Average finish of 12.6
· Led 9 races for 53 laps
Dover International Speedway Outlook:
· Three top fives, 11 top 10s
· Average finish of 15.6 in 25 races
· Average Running Position of 16.0, 14th-best
· Driver Rating of 83.1, 14th-best
· 749 Green Flag Passes, third-most
· 4,009 Laps in the Top 15 (58.9%), 11th-most
· 348 Quality Passes, 10th-most
7 – Kurt Busch (No. 78 Furniture Row Racing Chevrolet)
· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 94.9
2013 Rundown
· Nine top fives, 14 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 14.8
· Led 13 races for 441 laps
Dover International Speedway Outlook:
· One win, six top fives, eight top 10s
· Average finish of 18.1 in 26 races
· Average Running Position of 12.7, eighth-best
· Driver Rating of 93.6, seventh-best
· 267 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
· 714 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 143.373 mph, ninth-fastest
· 4,265 Laps in the Top 15 (62.7%), 10th-most
· 393 Quality Passes, seventh-most
8 – Jeff Gordon (No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)
· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 90.2
2013 Rundown
· Five top fives, 13 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 15.2
· Led 12 races for 275 laps
Dover International Speedway Outlook:
· Four wins, 16 top fives, 23 top 10s; four poles
· Average finish of 11.8 in 41 races
· Average Running Position of 12.8, ninth-best
· Driver Rating of 92.7, eighth-best
· 711 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 143.546 mph, seventh-fastest
· 5,016 Laps in the Top 15 (73.7%), sixth-most
· 458 Quality Passes, third-most
9 – Ryan Newman (No. 39 Stewart-Haas Racing Chevrolet)
· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 81.5
2013 Rundown
· One win, six top fives, 13 top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 15.8
· Led 12 races for 87 laps
Dover International Speedway Outlook:
· Three wins, six top fives, 11 top 10s; four poles
· Average finish of 13.1 in 23 races
· Average Running Position of 12.7, seventh-best
· Driver Rating of 88.4, 11th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 143.134 mph, 11th-fastest
· 4,492 Laps in the Top 15 (66.0%), eighth-most
· 338 Quality Passes, 13th-most
10 – Clint Bowyer (No. 15 Michael Waltrip Racing Toyota)
· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 93.5
2013 Rundown
· Eight top fives, 14 top 10s
· Average finish of 12.4
· Led 7 races for 290 laps
Dover International Speedway Outlook:
· One top five, eight top 10s
· Average finish of 12.7 in 15 races
· Average Running Position of 12.8, 10th-best
· Driver Rating of 91.1, ninth-best
· 169 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 143.398 mph, eighth-fastest
· 4,293 Laps in the Top 15 (71.6%), ninth-most
· 353 Quality Passes, ninth-most
11 – Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)
· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 93.8
2013 Rundown
· Five top fives, 15 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 14.7
· Led 9 races for 165 laps
Dover International Speedway Outlook:
· One win, five top fives, nine top 10s
· Average finish of 17.0 in 27 races
· Average Running Position of 18.8, 20th-best
· Driver Rating of 78.7, 17th-best
· 159 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-most
· 681 Green Flag Passes, 11th-most
12 – Joey Logano (No. 22 Penske Racing Ford)
· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 89.6
2013 Rundown
· One win, eight top fives, 14 top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 15.5
· Led 11 races for 249 laps
Dover International Speedway Outlook:
· One top five, five top 10s
· Average finish of 16.8 in nine races
· Average Running Position of 19.0, 21st-best
· Driver Rating of 76.2, 21st-best
13 – Kasey Kahne (No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)
· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 98.2
2013 Rundown
· Two wins, eight top fives, 11 top 10s
· Average finish of 16.8
· Led 7 races for 497 laps
Dover International Speedway Outlook:
· One top five, five top 10s
· Average finish of 21.5 in 19 races
· Average Running Position of 16.9, 16th-best
· Driver Rating of 80.2, 16th-best
· 293 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
· 695 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
Chase Contenders
The Top 13
Following Race 28 of 36 / Chase Race #2
1. Matt Kenseth 2,111
2. Kyle Busch 2,097
3. Jimmie Johnson 2,093
4. Carl Edwards 2,075
5. Greg Biffle 2,073
6. Kevin Harvick 2,072
7. Kurt Busch 2,071
8. Jeff Gordon 2,069
9. Ryan Newman 2,064
10. Clint Bowyer 2,063
11. Dale Earnhardt Jr. 2,049
12. Joey Logano 2,042
13. Kasey Kahne 2,040
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